FORECASTING

Code Cours
2324-IÉSEG-MBD1S2-QMS-MDBCI03UE
Langue d'enseignement
English
Matières
QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Responsable(s)
F.VAN DEN BOSSCHE
Intervenant(s)
F.VAN DEN BOSSCHE
Niveau
-
Année de formation
Période

Présentation

Prérequis
Algebra, inferential statistics, including (practical) knowledge of distributions, hypothesis testing, confidence intervals and the foundations of regression modeling
Objectifs
At the end of the course, the student should be able to:
- master the forecasting process, its data considerations and business implementation strategies
- apply statistical and econometric methods (modeling, estimation, interpretation, forecasting) to obtain forecasts in practical settings in business and economics
- understand the statistical background of the methods commonly used for forecasting in business and economics, and assess the appropriateness of the methods for specific problems
- build econometric forecasting models using real data into a dedicated econometric software package and interpret the output correctly, including the managerial consequences of the obtained results
- communicate about an econometric forecasting analysis, using appropriate scientific jargon

These competencies and/or skills contribute to the following learning objectives
- 3.A Breakdown complex organizational problems using the appropriate methodology
- 3.B Propose creative solutions within an organization
- 5.A. Predict how business and economic cycles could affect organizational strategy
- 5.B Construct expert knowledge from cutting-edge information
- 7.A Demonstrate an expertise on key concepts, techniques and trends in their professional field
- 7.B Formulate strategically-appropriate solutions to complex and unfamiliar challenges in their professional field
Présentation
• Forecasting in business and economics
• Basic tools for forecasting
• Exponential smoothing
• Time series decomposition
• ARIMA models
• Forecasting in practice

Modalités

Organisation
Type Amount of time Comment
Présentiel
Cours interactif 16,00 Interactive course include presentation of the theoretical concepts and worked out examples
Coaching 8,00 Each class includes hands-on activitities, in which students make exercises using forecasting software under guidance of the lecturer
Autoformation
E-Learning 16,00 We use an online book (Forecasting: principles and practice) written by Rob Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos. Students can re-read the chapters covered in class to improve their own understanding of the material.
Travail personnel
Individual Project 20,00
Charge de travail personnel indicative 15,00
Overall student workload 75,00
Évaluation
Students individually prepare an empirical paper in which two recent and relevant time series are forecasted, using the techniques that have been discussed during the lectures. The first data set is provided by the lecturer, together with guiding questions. The second data set is selected by the student and analyzed according to a carefully selected forecasting process, taking data considerations and implementation issues into account. More details will be provided in the first lecture.
Control type Duration Amount Weighting
Autres
Projet Individuel 20,00 1 50,00
Projet Collectif 15,00 1 50,00
TOTAL 100,00

Ressources

Bibliographie
Hyndman, R.J. and Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. -

http://otexts.org/fpp2/